Analysts at Jefferies estimated that an initial clinical readout of AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s trial of its COVID-19 vaccine AZD1222 may arrive in mid-November, as reported in London South East.
The broker arrived at the conclusion by using a "back-of-the-envelope statistical analysis", assuming that the vaccine would prove 60% effective.
They also mentioned the possibility that the vaccine could prove better at moderating symptoms than preventing them altogether, making it harder to obtain a successful readout.
According to the FDA, efficacy of 50% or greater is needed for it to grant emergency use authorisation. If the vaccine’s efficacy was closer to 50%, then the headline efficacy data could be available in December.
The analysts cautioned that they had to make other assumptions as they did not have access to AstraZeneca’s statistical analysis plan.
"We see a risk the vaccine ameliorates infections and the risk of transmission but perhaps has less effect on initial presentation of symptoms, suggesting a benefit to society but raising the bar for a successful readout."
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