AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine clinical trial readout may arrive in mid-November, Jefferies says - (London South East via NewsPoints Desk)

  • Analysts at Jefferies estimated that an initial clinical readout of AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s trial of its COVID-19 vaccine AZD1222 may arrive in mid-November, as reported in London South East. 

  • The broker arrived at the conclusion by using a "back-of-the-envelope statistical analysis", assuming that the vaccine would prove 60% effective.

  • They also mentioned the possibility that the vaccine could prove better at moderating symptoms than preventing them altogether, making it harder to obtain a successful readout. 

  • According to the FDA, efficacy of 50% or greater is needed for it to grant emergency use authorisation. If the vaccine’s efficacy was closer to 50%, then the headline efficacy data could be available in December. 

  • The analysts cautioned that they had to make other assumptions as they did not have access to AstraZeneca’s statistical analysis plan. 

  • "We see a risk the vaccine ameliorates infections and the risk of transmission but perhaps has less effect on initial presentation of symptoms, suggesting a benefit to society but raising the bar for a successful readout."

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